Are you definitely going the smalltalk path and your question is Which One platform? Or are you not yet committed to smalltalk?
If you go with Pharo, you may be able to migrate to something like Gemstone should the need arise. Or to one of the other flavors.
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I recently interviewed a kid with CompSci degree from a small school here in the States. He showed me his Senior Project. And I was nearly floored in shock. It was a whole mess of PHP... that did nothing more than present three DB tables to the user, which they could edit. In Pharo, using Seaside, and working through the tutorial to construct your login system (which was one of the tables of this project), and ... and using SQL calls directly (not learning Glorp), it would probably just take a few days to do as-you-learn. The amount of functional code/behavior seemed really small for a senior project... at least when compared to the productivity of Pharo+Seaside.
The moral of this story: if you are considering PHP as your alternative... DON'T! Instead work with classes/objects, in an environment that supports OO programming. Smalltalk scales really well in terms of programming time -- one of the most productive environments you will find.
That said... there are more java programmers than smalltalkers. ... of course... you need more java programmers for the same functionality! ;)
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How many different dialogs/widgets presented to the User? How many unique attributes/fields for user to select? Navigation is standardized? Etc. Obviously, sizing a project takes time.
... In smalltalk, one can often lay out crude class definitions as fast as you can type them into a project management system. It was made for rapid prototyping, and the ('type') evolution that comes with such development.
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I have a project that I would like to scale beyond your specs. But we can grow more slowly, giving us time to grapple with questions about DB mirroring, and how many Virtual images do we need, and how many Pharo images running on each... load balancing, etc. There are several people on this board who know more about this than I do. (Several offering consulting services too.)
Good luck!
-Cam